Kelly of AT&T Bell Laboratories, the Kelly Criterion is a formula designed to boost betting profits by determining the ideal percentage of capital to be staked on each wagering event. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin says back 10/1 pair in Aintree's Grand Sefton;. 2. In other words, according to the Kelly Criterion, in this case, football lovers should stake 0. For example: I would like to bet at 20 matches what are playing at the same time. Much later, investors adopted the idea, with investors such as Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Jim Simons, and Mohnish Pabrai embracing. Our approach is to adhere most closely to Kelly’s original ap-proachof maximizing the assets overthe long-term, given a probabilistic distribution at each investment. More. Two main concepts in wagering, Kelly criterion and hedging, will be discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. Race 2 21:38 Hawthorne - Satiate. 00 x 0. The big man, City Of Troy, is still in the race though and he is the 1/2 1. (You can turn a negative ROI into a positive one — at least in games of skill like horse racing — through greater education and better information. B=2-1=1. "16", "name" => "Horse Racing". ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?Kelly Criterion Calculator. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. This type of situation is. Kelly Criterion was developed in 1956 by John L. Recent. On 40. You can find these same numbers in the image above, and the Kelly Criterion Formula expresses it as follows: (0. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where multiple types of bets are available for a. We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. Where a bet has two outcomes (either losing the stake or winning the stake multiplied by the odds offered by the bookmaker or casino), the Kelly bet is as shown in the formula above…. Horse Racing Tips: Let's have a disco in Wales with Ffos Las Sunday double; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Auteuil Racing Tips: Native's stamina the key to first Grade 1 success; Horse Racing. Only Starman (Evens) and Harry Angel (6/4. 8. Mochkovitch. 0) than a 5% edge at 1/3 (1. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 9/4 Springwell Bay looks thrown in off 137 at Cheltenham Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Paddy Power Gold Cup can go to a closerFeatured Rugby. This isn't a strong nursery and. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. Ahead of race day revisit some great memories and test your knowledge by taking the Betfair Chase Quiz. If you want to be more conservative than the Kelly criterion, enter a value less than 1 (e. 40)- 0. 5 Tips for Using the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting. Put simply, the. I should warn an edge like that would require some serious inside info. For any queries relating to. An AT&T’s Bell Lab scientist and researcher, John Larry Kelly Jr. We’ve developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. Thorp. 20 or 20% of their bankroll. Mixed Martial Arts Tips. Horse Racing; Sports; Strategy; Tools; Punting Stars. She. Duhallow Tommy (Ire) 11st 9lbs. Racing. 71% of your capital, or $57. To overcome the bookmaker's margin you need. Introduction. Patrick Weaver says: "Willie Mullins' Vauban is favourite 3. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other “bets,” including blackjack, sports betting, and playing the stock market. Rugby World Cup Final. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. In Chapter 5, normal distribution and multinominal logistic regression are introduced in estimating winning probability of each race horse. It’s applicable to any game with an element of chance, such as sports betting and roulette. 50 (or 5/2 with an implied probability of 28. The Kelly criterion is a formula that can be used to determine the optimal size of a bet. Featured Horse Racing. 52 = 0. The objective is to maximize the Kelly criterion, which is equivalent to maximizing the ex-pected logarithm of wealth. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. Because of its theoretical advances in anticipating events and avoiding risks, the application of the Kelly Criterion in gambling spreads very quickly, such as the poker game blackjack in casinos and the popular horse racing and greyhound racing in Europe. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. The Kelly Criterion is a recognized money management system used extensively in horse and sports betting, and in the stock market. If the downside-case loss is less than 100%, as in the scenario above, a different Kelly formula is required: Kelly % = W/A – (1 – W)/B , where W is the win probability, B is the profit in the event of a win (20%), and A is the potential loss. The paper is structured as follows. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. Kelly Criterion Horse Racing example. The Kelly Staking Formula. 40) / 1 = 0. This means that the optimal size of your bet is 10% of your bankroll. Kelly Criterion's model is based on a mathematical formula developed by this author in the mid-1950s. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where. Alex Fielding. input 0. 15:20 Pontefract - Back Classy Boy @ 7/4 2. 40) / 1 = 0. 10. K. He was sired by Sebring out of the Bite The Bullet mare Mica's Pride. Kelly Jr. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for. The Kelly Criterion. Try out the Kelly Criterion Calculator below, but pay careful attention to heavy favorites (i. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. 73 feet. You think the horse has 50% of winning. This means that the optimal size of your bet is 10% of your bankroll. Learn how much you need to stake with the help of our easy-to-use Kelly Criterion bet calculator!Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleYard seeking a fourth win in this since 2014. Criterion has raced at Ascot-GB, Caulfield-AUS, Randwick-AUS, Flemington-AUS, Moonee Valley. With all the prior odds, the equation will add up to this: ( (4x 0. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. Murray Bridge Racecourse. 4 feet, with elite performers such as Frankel, Sea The Stars and. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. He was trained by David Hayes and Tom Dabernig and raced for Sir Owen G. Example of the Kelly Criterion: Let’s say you have analyzed a game and determined that the underdogs have a 40% chance of winning, and their odds are +200 (3. So if the chance of winning on a single bet is 80%, the bettor should wager 60% of one’s bankroll. Euro 2024. It’s ultimately designed to maximize profits and returns across sports betting and is becoming a staple for many when betting on soccer, NFL, and horse racing. You are here: Home >> Beginner’s Guide >> The Kelly Criterion Once a decision is has been made to wager money on an event, the next decision is to choose how much of your account balance to wager. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. However, it can be complicated to use if you are not used to it. This means that the bettor should wager 20% of their bankroll on Liverpool to win. 82pts. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion calculator horse racing or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. we will be breaking down everything you need to know about the Kelly criterion betting system and how you can use it to enhance your betting system and strat. And at Caesars, the race took the checkers from NASCAR, which has leaned hard into sports betting as a fan-engagement vehicle. However, for any of those outcomes, there are only two outcomes to the gambler's bankroll: The gambler bet on the correct outcome of the team game. The formula compares that probability with the odds available, and adjusts the stake accordingly for maximum profitability. 40 together to get 0. The number of bets considered here should also be discussed. Its discoverer was John Larry Kelly, Jr . Kelly Jr. 1 – 1. k. The Real KC is very useful for outright betting as shown. Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's three new bets for Betfair Chase Day up to 12/1; Rachael Blackmore: Hoping classy Quilixios can run a big race in Grade 2 chaseInformation regarding Kelly Criterion and betting simulation is readily available online and important for those who want to stay profitable long term. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. , discovered the Kelly criterion in 1956 in New Jersey. to identify how to maximize the long-term growth rate of investments and has since been used successfully. Overall: +33. How to use the Kelly Criterion calculator. 2 Kelly gambling In Kelly gambling, we place a xed fraction of our total wealth (assumed positive) on nbets. Soon after the paper was published the gambling community somehow came across it and found that it had potential as a perfect betting system for horse racing. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). Kelly Criterion User Name: Remember Me? Password: Google Site Search: Get RDSS: Sartin Library: RDSS FAQs: Conduct: Register: Site FAQ: Members List: Today's Posts: Search: General Discussion General Horse Racing DiscussionRespected under a 4 lb penalty. For the lone player betting on a single hand or horse, the Kelly formula demands guts and patience -- hence the controversy. For any queries relating to. It was only after later that the formula was applied to investing. Most only know a simplified version. Before addressing your investment strategy, learn about the Kelly criterion and see if it’s a fit for you. New show alert. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). 8 – 0. 2) From another angle. Simply input your betting bankroll, the odds on offer, your. Without the right knowledge and strategy on how much to wager on a particular event, you could easily plunge yourself into a pit of losses. The underlying purpose of the reviewed modifications is to mitigate the additional risk stemming from the unrealistic mathematical. Kelly Criterion maximizes the wealth in the long-run. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. Get the best bets for this Saturday's horse racing at Ascot and beyond from tipsters Kevin Blake, Tony Calvin, Kate Tracey and Timeform. click title for. 5. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner: Kelly CriterionThe Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that can be used to determine the optimal amount of money to bet on an event based on the bettor’s perceived edge or advantage. Wanees has the right sort of profile for this race and. 80. If you’re looking to maximize investment returns, perhaps you should think like a gambler. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. He's a BIG player in the financial markets and I'm sure he moves that kind of money all the time. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. After getting published in 1956, the gambling community got wind of it and realized its prospects in the horse racing betting system. TBM incorporates Race Card data for UK/IRE Horse Racing and UK Greyhound Racing. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that is used to take optimally sized bets and grow your capital at the maximum rate possible. 00 The 2m handicap at 14:25 is much more up my usual betting strasse, and I thought it would be, once again. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, we can calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to bet as: f* = ( (2. If 3 bets were made every week, it would take The calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. That is the heart of any. So, our new starting bankroll is $1250, our new target profit equals $312. A new formulation of the fractional Kelly strategy, which involves betting a fixed fraction of the amount suggested by the Kelly criterion, is also presented for this type of scenario. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. Granny B achieved a fair level of form in six starts as a two-year-old, producing her best effort when filling the runner-up spot in a Pontefract maiden last July. The first step in using the Kelly Criterion for horse racing betting is to analyze various factors that affect the outcome of the race. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. Horse Racing Tips: One drifter and a chaser to back for 48/1 Monday double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 11/8 Adjuvant's flat speed can land Hereford opener; Horse. Suppose you are betting on a horse race event at the Cheltenham Hurdle, and the odds offered for your horse in a race is 5. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. The 20/1 21. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Timeform best bets. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the. 89% of my bankroll on any race (still using the Pace of Horse factor). This is important, since in the latter case. It functions as an investment scale, balancing the equity between risk and reward. 1) Regardless of what you make the chance of the horse, 60%, 50%, 40% , 30% if the odds on offer are 4/1 your stake is 20 points. Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Fry up some Ree Okka on Monday;. If 3 bets were made every week, it would takeThe calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. The Kelly Criterion sprung from the work of John Kelly at AT&T's Bell Labs in 1956. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide. This has been applied to various games, including horse racing. 80 and subtract 0. Kelly Criterion recommend risking 6% of your. Golf. We’ve along with set up a. 2) From another angle. RaceQuant enlisted our team to use machine learning to more accurately predict the outcome of horse races, to advise betting. Betfair International Plc is licensed and regulated by the . “The Las Vegas Grand Prix was the most bet F1 event. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. Timeform's Andrew Asquith highlights a Nap, Next Best and Each-Way selection at Beverley on Thursday. q = 0. Now live in 25 states, this. The Kelly Criterion implies you should bet 22. 60) / 4 = 0. It can therefore be applied equally well in American football, soccer and horse racing markets, to name just three. Tony McFadden. Kelly Criterion. Golf. Golf. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick;. 55×1-0. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Horse Racing Tips: Lou to give us a gift in Thursday 13/1 Newcastle double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Take a chance on 20/1 Zhiguli at Ascot this Saturday. The sum of positive trade amounts divided by the sum of negative trade amounts. many horses; he assumed the track take to be zero. I would describe it as the ability to spot and identify the very smallest details of a horse's performance in a race and correctly interpret the significance and. The objective is to maximize the Kelly criterion, which is equivalent to maximizing the ex-pected logarithm of wealth. Nick Mordin devoted a chapter to the Kelly Criterion in his book Winning Without Thinking, which also had the original paper in the appendix,. Horse Racing Tips: Let's have a disco in Wales with Ffos Las Sunday double; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Auteuil Racing Tips: Native's stamina the key to first Grade 1 success; Horse Racing. 1. while working at AT&T's Bell Laboratories. 66% of your bank. 16) of our free Excel betting. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. Racing. 60 – 0. All of the major. BTW, Thorpe, started the counting craze in BJ. com. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. Kelly. Don said picking a trifecta winning bet was a test of skill rather than a game of chance. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. Horse Betting 101 Edit. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. 45)/1=0. Cheltenham Festival: Expert Betting Advice & Predictions for the 2023 Cheltenham: Cheltenham Races Tips Cheltenham Betting Offers Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. I would like to use Kelly Criterion but I do not manage to use it at more bets at the same time. Four staking plans are compared: full-Kelly, half-Kelly, quarter-Kelly and eighth-Kelly. Essentially the formula gives the optimal size of bets in order to win as much as possible over time while reducing the risk of ruin. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleHorse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Timeform best bets. 0= 1. Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). 5/2. evident from looking at the Kelly Criterion graph. A more general problem was considered in. @tony_calvin will be live on our Twitter spaces this and every Saturday from 8am for a 30 min update show with @mccueryan12 chatting Going Updates Market Movers ITV Races and. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. Ice Hockey Tips. It means your implied probability is 0. A. 4:00 min read. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. . For any queries relating to Betting. 2022 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to. In relation to sports betting, it’s. who was a mathematician at Bell Labs in the 1950s. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 66/1 Jazzie to spring a surprise at Fairyhouse;. For any queries relating to Betting. I wouldn't like to be laying Hamish at 100/1 101. While this was formulated around table games, it is a concept that can be. Published in 1956, the Kelly Criterion was quickly adopted by gamblers for use in horse racing. 25 so an edge of 25% divided by 1. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. K. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. For example, consider you are betting on a coin to land on heads at 2. 2$ and his odds are $1$ so you. Jun 16, 2023 By Rebecca Martin Multiple strategies in the sports betting world claim to help bettors maximize their profits and manage their banks effectively. As much as anything, it is the prospect of Quickthorn getting the lead to himself that is just as attractive as the drop in class that the race represents. 00 x 0. The Kelly Criterion is a famous formula developed by its name-sake John Kelly Jr and is used by many a handicapper and blackjack player. Any horse racing system must have a money management component built in. Enter the odds, which represent the potential payout for winning the bet. Here’s what the variables in the Kelly Criterion formula look like based on these conditions. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss. Ascot - 15:50: Back Davideo. 60 to get 0. 66pts P/L: +210. If the bet is successful, the bettor would win £36 for every £20 wagered. The latter corresponds to a specific allocation of the gambler's capital on the M horses: if we denote by C t the gambler's. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: South Africa and New Zealand to serve up classic final. Red Mile VP Sees Sports Betting as Boost for Kentucky Horse Racing. Highfield Princess enjoyed remarkable success last. Minnis. 0. forms of gambling, including sports betting. 5) – 60)/2) = 16% of your bank. WITH KELLY. The famous Kelly betting criterion (Kelly, 1956), which maximizes a logarithmic utility function, is widely used to choose s. After John L. In this paper, we provide a new approach to apply-ing the Kelly criterion to stock market investments. Here is the Formula: f*= (bp-q)/b. 5pt EW) settled at BSP: +5. There are n horses in the race, and the probability of horse h winning is πh. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. Horse Racing Tips: Bailey to score with Gwen in Thursday 14/1 double Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: Hughes can get the best out of McCain's unexposed chaserHorse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. You then multiply 2 and 0. In general, such replacement of population parameters. If there is a fixed amount of bets the Kelly criterion will be suboptimal, but as the number of bets grows the optimal strategy will asymptotically reach the Kelly criterion. The calculator will tell you whether or not you should be betting and how much to stake. Keep in mind that this is a high percentage and the ideal amount you should bet is 3% of your bankroll or less. 20 or 20%. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;The Kelly Criterion is a money-management formula that calculates the optimal amount you should bet when there’s a difference between the true odds and the given odds. Vanessa Ryle, Tony Calvin Kevin Blake, Dan Barber and Barry Orr discussed all five glorious days of racing and covered everything you need to know from Tuesday's starting stalls to the finish line. Kelly criterion staking approach aims to maximize your winning and protect your capital in losing runs. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Featured Rugby. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 25/1 Pride to spring a surprise at Lingfield; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back 20/1 shot to tear it up at Cheltenham on. Most only know a simplified version. Duhallow Tommy showed a fairly useful level of form in bumpers last season, opening his account in that sphere at the third attempt at Fontwell in January, and he. 10. betfair. The ultimate value betting calculator. 20. e. It can also be a. The Kelly Staking Plan is based on using the ‘Kelly Constant’. Betting 5000 times may be unrealistic for most. Wednesday - Windsor Castle: Back Barnwell Boy. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. 00. The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid. Team2 wins. Current Yearly P/L. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. 14% July = -7. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies, and review their common modifications used in practice. K. g. Three are three outcomes to the team game: Team1 wins. Netherlands v Republic of Ireland: Both teams to score as ROI promise to have a go. Named after its inventor, John L. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapping Library: New book about Kelly criterionA simple 'trick' with this strategy is to simply to back at the current lay price and lay at the current back price. 30 June 2010. The worksheet tracks your bets and provides in-depth performance data as well as a profit graph. If the downside-case loss is less than 100%, as in the scenario above, a different Kelly formula is required: Kelly % = W/A – (1 – W)/B , where W is the win probability, B is the profit in the event of a win (20%), and A is the potential loss. With hand waving and basic math you can also use it to help guide your investment decisions. F. 1 of the amount they have set aside for gambling purposes. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ;. In horse racing, this is based on the player's own handicapping of the race. 20 or 20%. It is an effective way to manage your. Fractional Kelly betting The recommended Kelly criterion stake will be multiplied by this value. In addition to our automated calculator above, you can also download our excel version below. where f is the fraction of the bank to stake; b is the odds for the bet (“b to 1”); p is the probability of winning; q is the probability of losi…How does the Kelly criterion calculator work? By entering your bankroll, the odds and your estimated probability of winning, the Kelly Criterion calculator will tell you how much. It is a formula created by John Kelly to bet with discipline and make sure to always protect yourself, rather than go for the home run each time. Racing Results & Replays. Tennis Tips. Kelly Jr. Team2 wins. 80 on the Sportsbook. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: England to finish on high with Argentina win. 2 or 20%. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race; How to use Timeform Ratings;Football. Horse racing tips from Beverley on Tuesday 11 May 2021.